macroblog: Betting On Ben

macroblog: Betting On Ben : macroblog News items, data releases, and articles of interest for the Chicago GSB XP macro community, and beyond. About Email Me Fed sites Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Federal Reserve Bank of New York Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Beige Book Useful Links AEAWeb Blog List Bloomberg.com CNN/Money Central Bank Research Hub Current Account Sustainability of Major Industrialized Countries-Home Econ Journal Watch Economic Indicators Calendar - Federal Reserve Bank of New York Economist.com Economy.com - Economic Analysis and Data Inflation Central: FRB Cleveland Information on Recessions and Recoveries, the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, and related topics MoneyWeb: Economics:Calendars Nouriel Roubini"s Global Macro Site Optimetrica washingtonpost.com Fed Report Government Stats and Such BLS Handbook of Methods Bureau of Economic Analysis Bureau of Labor Statistics Congressional Budget Office FRB: Statistics: Releases and Historical Data Office of Management and Budget St. Louis Fed: Economic Data - FRED® II U.S. Census Bureau Economic Programs White House Economic Statistics Briefing Room Econ Blogs A Fistful of Euros Angry Bear ArgMax.com Asymmetrical Information Brad DeLong's Semi-Daily Journal: A Weblog Brad Setser's Web Log Cafe Hayek Calculated Risk Cynic's Delight Daniel W. Drezner David Smith's EconomicsUK.com EconLog: Library of Economics and Liberty Econbrowser EconoPundit Economics Roundtable Economics Unbound Economist's View Economy Watch Econotarian.Org General Glut's Globblog Global Trader's Diary JustOneMinute Marginal Revolution MaxSpeak, You Listen! New Economist News and Analysis Nouriel Roubini's Global Economics Blog PRESTOPUNDIT Stumbling and Mumbling TaxProf Blog The Becker-Posner Blog The Big Picture The Capital Spectator The Lowest Deep The Prudent Investor Tim Worstall Truck and Barter Vox Baby WSJ.com - Econoblog William J. Polley Add me to your TypePad People list Subscribe to this blog's feed Sitemeter « Milton Friedman: Euro Skeptic | Main February 13, 2006 Betting On Ben Edward Hugh (he of A Fistful of Euros) took a break from his research labors to give me the heads up on this item from Bloomberg, helpfully informing us what new Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will be saying when he testifies before Congress this week: Gentle Ben he won't be. Ben Bernanke, appearing before Congress this week for the first time since becoming Federal Reserve chairman Feb. 1, is likely to brush aside lawmakers' calls for a pause in the central bank's credit-tightening campaign and vow vigilance against inflation, analysts say. Cementing the Fed's inflation-fighting credibility at a time of regime change at the central bank is particularly important because some in the markets are already suspicious that Bernanke will be soft on inflation. Behind those concerns: Bernanke's suggestion in 2002 that the Fed would pull out all stops if needed to fight a deflationary downturn in the economy, a strategy he compared to a "helicopter drop'' of money. "He's given his helicopter speech and established his anti- deflation credentials,'' says Tom Gallagher, Washington-based senior managing director at ISI Group, a New York money- management and research firm. "Now he's got to give his howitzer speech and establish his anti-inflation credibility... There are risks to Bernanke's taking a tough stance against inflation. If he raises rates too far, he runs the danger of bursting what Yale University economist Robert Shiller has called the biggest property bubble ever. Already, there are signs the housing market is cooling off. Toll Brothers Inc., the largest U.S. builder of luxury homes, said on Feb. 7 that fiscal first-quarter orders plunged 29 percent as buyers waited to see whether prices would fall. Fed staff economists are convinced that the economy is strong enough to withstand a slowdown in the housing market. Armed with their reassurances, Bernanke is likely to try to burnish his inflation-fighting credentials. "He's going to err on the side of hawkishness, not dovishness,'' [Lawrence Lindsey, a former Fed governor and chief economic adviser to President George W. Bush who now heads his own consulting group] says. There you have it. February 13, 2006 in Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy | Permalink TrackBack TrackBack URL for this entry: http://www.typepad.com/t/trackback/4250517 Listed below are links to weblogs that reference Betting On Ben: Comments Post a comment If you have a TypeKey or TypePad account, please Sign In Name: Email Address: URL: Remember personal info? Comments: Recent Posts Betting On Ben Milton Friedman: Euro Skeptic A Case Against Medical Savings Accounts And The Bankers Say... This Week In Entitlement Reform And The Funds Rate Probabilities Say: 50/50 For Five The Bigger Picture The Market Solution To The Energy Question... Jumping The Inflation Gun Is The Labor Market Still Underperforming? February 2006 Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 Archives February 2006 January 2006 December 2005 November 2005 October 2005 September 2005 August 2005 July 2005 June 2005 May 2005 Categories Americas Asia Australia Data Releases Deficits Economic Growth and Development Energy Europe Exchange Rates and the Dollar Federal Debt and Deficits Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy Fed Funds Futures Health Care Housing Inflation Interest Rates Katrina Labor Markets Latin America/South America Sarbanes-Oxley Saving, Capital, and Investment Social Security Taxes The "Landing" Strip This, That, and the Other Trade Trade Deficit Powered by TypePad