Semi-Daily Journal Archive

The Blogspot archive of the weblog of J. Bradford DeLong, Professor of Economics and Chair of the PEIS major at U.C. Berkeley, a Research Associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research, and former Deputy Assistant Secretary of the U.S. Treasury.

Thursday, February 09, 2006

That "Analytical Perspectives" Volume Will Trip You Up Every Time...

Max Sawicky notes that the White House's political appointees were unable to read the Analytical Pespectives volume of the budget, hence they failed to vet it. Probably fell asleep in the preface, poor sods:

MaxSpeak, You Listen!: COGNITIVE DISSONANCE WATCH : The Budget of the U.S. Government, Fiscal Years 2007-2016, main volume, Expanding Economic Opportunity, p. 7:

We are also seeing the sustained job growth expected from a strong economy. Employment is up by 4.6 million jobs since May of 2003. The unemployment rate, which peaked at 6.3 percent in June of 2003, fell to 4.9 percent by the end of 2005, a level consistent with strong growth and low inflation. This unemployment rate is lower than the average unemployment rates of the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s, and it is significantly lower than the unemployment rates of many of our major trading partners...

The Budget of the U.S. Government, Fiscal Years 2007-2016, Analytical Perspectives, p. 171:

The extraordinary fall-off in labor force participation, from 67.1 percent of the U.S. population in 1997-2000 to 66.0 percent in 2000-2005, appears to be at least partly cyclical in nature, and most forecasters are assuming some rebound in labor force participation as the expansion continues. Since the official unemployment rate does not include workers who have left the labor force, the conventional measures of potential GDP, incomes, and Government receipts understate the extent to which potential work hours have been under-utilized in the current expansion to date because of the decline in labor force participation.

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