Good News on the March Trade Deficit: $62 Billion ($744 Billion a Year)

Brad Setser on the March trade deficit:

RGE - Not quite as good as they look (the March trade numbers): Not quite as good as the headline fall suggests. That is my initial take on the March US trade numbers.... The US trade deficit dipped to $62 billion in March. That wasn't expected. Certainly not by me....

The deficit improved because of strong exports. The export numbers are as good as they look. Broad across the board gains. Aircraft are doing fine -- the US exported about $10b of planes in q1, v $6b a year ago. But Boeing didn't drive the data. March aircraft exports were a bit below February exports. The US sold a lot more electronics.

And the deficit improved because of an unusual fall off in imports.... [T]he main reason for the better-than-expected deficit: oil That's right. Oil. Oil imports fell... by about $2 billion in March....

I always like to look at Exhibit 17 of the trade report. It is the data on oil imports in its rawest form. And it turns out that the US imported less oil this March than last March: 397,983 thousand barrels v. 420,260 thousand barrels.... Maybe higher prices are having an impact. That is the good news. The bad news: the March import price of $52.26 a barrel (a bit below February) is not going to last...