Semi-Daily Journal Archive

The Blogspot archive of the weblog of J. Bradford DeLong, Professor of Economics and Chair of the PEIS major at U.C. Berkeley, a Research Associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research, and former Deputy Assistant Secretary of the U.S. Treasury.

Thursday, June 29, 2006

The Latest GDP Release

Good news about inflation, bad news about distribution:

WSJ.com - GDP Is Revised Upward To 5.6% Rate in 1st Quarter: Gross domestic product rose at a 5.6% annual rate January through March, the Commerce Department said Thursday. A month ago, Commerce estimated GDP grew by 5.3%.

Corporate profits were adjusted much higher, while gauges within the report indicated prices rose less than earlier believed, the report showed. The reason for the upward adjustment to GDP was that imports didn't increase as much as earlier thought....

The Federal Reserve is meeting Thursday to decide on monetary policy. Despite earlier indications they might pause their tightening, bankers were widely expected by Wall Street analysts to raise their federal funds rate target to 5.25%. The economy doesn't seem to have slowed in the quarter that ends Friday as much as previously feared, and inflation is seen rising....

Price inflation estimates were mixed. The government's price index for personal consumption rose 2.0%, the same as previously estimated but below the fourth quarter's 2.9% climb. The PCE price gauge excluding food and energy was also unrevised at 2.0% but lower than the fourth-quarter rate of 2.4%. The price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents, rose at a 2.6% rate, revised from a previously estimated 2.8% increase and below the fourth-quarter rate of 3.7%. The chain-weighted GDP price index increased at a 3.1% rate, down from the previous estimate for the quarter of 3.3% and lower than the fourth quarter's 3.5% rate of appreciation.

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