Trade Diversion: Optimism from Alan Beattie

Trade Diversion sees some cause for optimism:>Trade Diversion: Optimism from Alan Beattie: Alan Beattie:

But, as has always been the case over the past few years, the encircling wraiths of protectionism have yet to be made flesh. In a series of interviews over the past week with current and former administration officials, senators, congressmen, lobbyists and think-tank trade experts, there remains a surprising degree of confidence that free trade can still prevail...

Susan Schwab, US trade representative (USTR), points out that despite all the threats from Congress about China and trade, Capitol Hill has continued to live up to its multilateral responsibilities, repealing cotton farming subsidies and corporate tax breaks found illegal by the WTO, and has backed USTR's position in multilateral talks. "In the same 12 months we haven't passed Schumer-Graham, the Congress has enacted pro-trade laws that eliminated WTO-inconsistent practices," she says...

It is hard at present to see how the mood in Washington will let any but a few bilateral trade deals advance at present. The WTO is, perhaps, about to see a test of the so-called "bicycle" -theory of trade negotiations - that the multilateral system will fall over unless it keeps moving forward with new deals struck and fresh market access gained. But though the bicycle has wavered at the signs of a rough road ahead, the rider has yet to lose balance.