Semi-Daily Journal Archive

The Blogspot archive of the weblog of J. Bradford DeLong, Professor of Economics and Chair of the PEIS major at U.C. Berkeley, a Research Associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research, and former Deputy Assistant Secretary of the U.S. Treasury.

Tuesday, November 14, 2006

Recession? A Point for Nouriel Roubini

Over the Bloomberg wire:

Retail Sales Are Lower, but Beat Expectations - New York Times: Sales fell 0.2 percent after a revised 0.8 percent decline in September, which was twice as large as originally reported, the Commerce Department said yesterday. Purchases excluding gasoline rose 0.4 percent last month.

"This shows consumers are hanging in there but not showing outsized exuberance," said Anthony Chan, chief economist at J. P. Morgan Private Client Services in New York. "It paints a picture of a moderating economy."

Economists expected retail sales to fall 0.4 percent in October, matching the previously reported decline in September.

Sales excluding autos fell 0.4 percent after a 1.2 percent drop. Sales excluding autos were projected to decline 0.2 percent after a previously reported drop of 0.5 percent...

Seasonally adjusted, retail sales in October were 1% lower than in August. Retail sales excluding autos were 1.6% lower in October than they were in August.

This is not very good news.

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