Semi-Daily Journal Archive

The Blogspot archive of the weblog of J. Bradford DeLong, Professor of Economics and Chair of the PEIS major at U.C. Berkeley, a Research Associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research, and former Deputy Assistant Secretary of the U.S. Treasury.

Wednesday, July 12, 2006

Signs of a Forthcoming Labor Market Slowdown?

Barry Ritholz is not happy:

The Big Picture: Chart of the Week: Leading Indicators Point To Employment Slowdown: Has the US labor market has had its day? “Analytically, this expectation is based on a deceleration in GDP growth primarily caused by the end of the housing boom. It has been the main driver behind the increase in jobs for years. But more important is the fact that corporate profit growth should have peaked: input costs have soared, but pricing power did not. Therefore, companies are becoming less keen to hire,” according to HVB Group.

Source: HVB Group

HVB Group further notes: “This is already reflected in some forward-looking employment indicators. Hiring plans are tending south as is the CEO confidence survey. This implies that CEOs will reduce new hires or even slash some of their headcount further. But the most striking warning signals are the help wanted index as well as temporary employment.”

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